A growing number of Germans no longer believe that Russia poses an immediate military threat to their country, according to a recent public opinion survey that highlights shifting attitudes toward security fears in Europe.
For several years, senior officials in Germany have warned that Moscow could become a direct threat to NATO countries before the end of the decade. Earlier this month, Germany’s highest-ranking military officer, Carsten Breuer, told the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that Russia might be prepared for a military confrontation with NATO by 2029.
Despite such warnings, public concern appears to be declining. According to a survey conducted by the INSA polling institute and reported by Bild am Sonntag, only 38% of Germans now consider a potential Russian attack on Germany to be a realistic threat. That figure marks a sharp drop of 14 percentage points compared with a similar poll conducted in September last year.
The survey also found that half of respondents said they were no longer afraid of a Russian attack at all, suggesting that skepticism toward official warnings has increased significantly over the past year.
At the same time, the poll revealed widespread doubts about Germany’s defense capabilities. Only 17% of participants expressed confidence that the German military, the Bundeswehr, would be capable of defending the country in the event of an attack. Confidence in support from allies also appeared weak, with 43% saying they doubted the United States would come to Germany’s defense in a major conflict.
Since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Germany has embarked on one of the largest military modernization efforts in its postwar history. Defense spending is expected to surpass €500 billion by 2029 as Berlin seeks to strengthen its armed forces and reduce long-standing military shortcomings.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to transform the Bundeswehr into the “strongest conventional army in Europe,” despite growing economic pressures and concerns over the country’s expanding budget deficit.
Meanwhile, Russian officials continue to reject Western claims that Moscow intends to attack NATO nations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly dismissed such allegations as “nonsense,” arguing that European leaders are using fears of Russian aggression to divert public attention from domestic political and economic challenges.
Last month, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticized Germany’s military expansion plans, warning that renewed large-scale rearmament in Europe could lead to consequences comparable to the tragedies of World War II.